Defining a “safe and just corridor” for future development will not be easy, the Earth Commissioners and their colleagues acknowledge, but the framework published last week in Earth’s Future (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001866), will guide the Commission’s assessment of planetary thresholds, due to be published in 2022. By defining global targets or limits for land use and freshwater, for example, similar to the 1.5°C target for climate set by the Paris Agreement, the Earth Commission’s findings will underpin the development of science-based targets for companies and cities at more local scales. 

The Commission must assess what is safe for Earth’s systems, in order to avoid tipping points for example, that might damage the processes that keep the planet functioning in a way that is amenable to humans. At the same time, they must look carefully at whether humans can get the resources they need, in a fair way. 

“Given current inequalities, it is possible that meeting the needs of all may lead to transgressing the safe limits of Earth’s systems,” said Joyeeta Gupta, a Co-Chair of the Earth Commission and professor at the University of Amsterdam. “People need to have access to clean water and enough food.” In many cases, to get these basic needs, people have already made decisions related to farming, for example, including land use change and the use of nitrogen and phosphorus in large enough amounts to have skewed how ecosystems operate around the world. 

“At the same time, safe limits from a biophysical perspective may not be safe enough for all people on our planet,” Gupta noted. To address that issue, she said, “Our two dimensions of ‘just’ cover ‘harm’ and ‘access.’” Coral reefs, for example, could disappear with a seemingly “safe” 1.5°C global warming that is the goal for climate change targets now. The planet will continue to function, but people who rely on those reefs for fishing or tourism economies will suffer.

The “safe and just corridor” framework will assist the Earth Commission in quantifying what conditions for the planet’s systems avoid dangerous tipping points and ensure just sharing of risk, responsibilities and resources for all. The findings, to be reported next year, will support science-based targets for cities, corporations and  governments to ensure the protection of the planet’s safe operating environment.